EA Sports recently released their top defensive rankings for College Football 25, following up on their offensive rankings. These ratings often stir debate, and comparing them to projections from a sophisticated College Football Projection Model can highlight interesting discrepancies. This model incorporates play-by-play data, adjustments for opponent strength, home-field advantage, and garbage time, along with returning production and recruiting metrics, to project team performance.

Here are the key differences between EA's defensive rankings and the projections from the model:

1. Alabama: Potential Drop Post-Saban?

EA Sports ranks Alabama's defense as the fourth best in College Football 25, but the projection model places them at 18th. Alabama's legendary coach Nick Saban, known for his defensive prowess, has been replaced by Kalen DeBoer, an offensive-minded head coach. Coupled with the fact that Alabama's roster ranks outside the top 100 in defensive returning production, the model anticipates a decline in defensive efficiency. Despite Alabama's inherent talent, expecting a top-five defense seems optimistic.

2. Big Ten's Dominance on Defense

Both EA Sports and the projection model agree that the Big Ten will be defensively formidable this season. Four of the top 10 defenses come from this conference in both rankings. Ohio State leads the pack in both lists, with Penn State and Michigan also expected to maintain their defensive strength. Iowa cracks the top 10 in the model's rankings but is slightly lower at 13th in EA's list. A notable discrepancy is Oregon, ranked 2nd by EA but only 12th in the model's projections.

3. LSU and USC: On the Path to Redemption?

LSU and USC are both looking to rebound from disastrous defensive performances last season. LSU ranked 113th in defensive success rate and USC 93rd in defensive EPA per play. Both teams have new defensive coordinators, leading to expectations of improvement. EA ranks both teams in the top 20 defensively, while the model is more conservative, placing LSU at 26th and USC at 39th. Despite their talent, achieving top 20 status pre-season seems overly ambitious.

4. Colorado: Overrated Again?

EA Sports appears overly optimistic about Colorado's defense, despite their poor performance last season, ranking 114th in EPA/play and 123rd in defensive success rate. While defensive back Travis Hunter is a standout player expected to be a first-round NFL Draft pick, the overall unit is projected to struggle. The model ranks Colorado's defense at 77th, which already feels generous given their previous statistics.

Summary of Key Discrepancies

    Alabama: EA ranks 4th, model ranks 18th. Key factors: coaching change and low-returning defensive production.

    Big Ten Teams: Consensus on defensive strength. Notable difference: Oregon ranked 2nd by EA, and 12th by the model.

    LSU and USC: EA is optimistic with the top 20 ranks, model is more cautious with LSU at 26th and USC at 39th.

    Colorado: EA ranks highly despite past poor performance, model places them at 77th.

Conclusion

Comparing EA Sports' defensive rankings in College Football 25 with projections from a detailed model reveals several interesting differences. While EA's rankings highlight traditional powerhouses, the projection model, which considers a broader range of performance data, suggests that some teams might not live up to these high expectations. As the season unfolds, it will be intriguing to see which predictions hold true and which teams exceed or fall short of their anticipated defensive prowess.

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